The financial world saw real-time payment transactions set a new record last year, with 266 billion transactions occurring globally. However, this record is expected to be surpassed, as real-time payments are projected to more than double1 over the next five years, reaching 575 billion by 2028.
This growth is driven not only by financial institutions but also by a unique collaboration between governments, regulators, banks, and fintechs. Countries with the most to gain—those with large populations, cash economies, low credit usage, and poor financial inclusion, such as Brazil and India—have been leading the way in establishing real-time payments for everyday use. The next major frontier will be developing real-time remittance and cross-border payment corridors to support international trade.
Success Factors
ACI’s fifth annual Prime Time for Real Time report examines the real-time payments landscape and identifies the factors that will fuel its growth over the next decade.
In countries with thriving real-time payment ecosystems, five common drivers have emerged:
Active collaboration
Whether by government mandate or industry consensus, real-time payment systems thrive through collaboration between financial institutions, payment service providers, government institutions, and third-party stakeholders.
Strong merchant incentives
To spur adoption of its UPI service, India’s government removed merchant discount rates and issued all merchants QR codes, making it easy to accept UPI payments.
Open and inclusive payment ecosystems
Larger banks will need to forge new partnerships with fintechs and smaller banks to remain competitive and drive transaction volume.
Constant flow of user-friendly use cases
Real-time payments thrive in countries where innovative use cases like tax bills or subscription payments have driven mass adoption.
Cross-border ambition
Efforts to extend real-time to cross-border payments are finally paying off, with Asian countries leading the way.
Real-Time Around the World
Global regions have taken very different approaches to real-time implementation. While Asia is the global leader in real-time payments, North America appears to have the most potential for growth. Here’s how the markets are currently shaking out:
South Asia
India leads global real-time payments by a significant margin, handling 129 billion transactions in 2023. This exceeds the combined total of the rest of the world’s top 10 real-time payment markets and accounts for nearly half of all global real-time transactions.
The introduction of UPI in April 2016 was a game changer, enabling real-time payments through QR codes mobile numbers, and virtual IDs. Thanks to demonetization mandates and the inclusion of non-bank players, UP is now accessible across 500 banks.
Moreover, Pakistan—whose Raast payment method went live in 2021—is forecast to experience some of the world’s fastest growth in this area over the next five years.
Asia Pacific
Asia Pacific is the largest regional market, with four of the global top five real-time payment markets by volume. Thailand, South Korea, and China are third, fourth, and fifth in the top five nations with the most real-time payments.
Overall, Asia Pacific processed 185.8 billion real-time payments in 2023, with real-time payments representing 24% of all electronic payments in the region.
Europe
In Europe, the EU Instant Payments Regulation, which passed earlier this year, is expected to drive instant payments volume across the 27 EU member states. Instant payments are forecast to account for 13% of all electronic payments in Europe by 2028, up from 8% in 2023.
Ireland is expected to experience the fastest growth in real-time payments worldwide over the next five years. Croatia is in second place, although only seven institutions have signed up for the national real-time payments scheme so far.
The Netherlands ranks fourth in the EU for instant payments transaction volume, with more than 1.3 billion instant payment transactions in 2023. Despite this, its instant payments scheme is one of the most innovative in Europe. While new payment schemes are typically driven by governments and central banks, in the Netherlands, it was the payment service providers and banking community that led the process when it launched in 2019. Thanks to early nationwide adoption of SCT Inst as the default payment method for all digitally initiated single transfers, the Netherlands achieved a smooth transition to low-cost and seamless instant payments.
Americas
Brazil’s PIX may be the world’s gold standard for real-time payments. According to ACI Worldwide, more than three-quarters of Brazilians now use the PIX real-time platform, which handles 75% of South and Central America’s real-time transaction volumes. The system continues to expand: The launch of Automatic PIX is expected to transform recurring payments, allowing Brazilians to use PIX for streaming services, bill pay, and subscription clubs. This will likely be followed by buy now, pay later plans and point-of-sale financing processes.
Mexico was an early adopter of real-time payments in Latin America, launching its Sistema de Pagos Electrónicos Interbancarios (SPEI) system in 2004. Despite its head start in the region, adoption of real-time payments has been slow due to the region’s high unbanked population and lack of awareness about electronic payments. ACI forecasts annual growth in real time payments at just 7.9% from 2023 to 2028—the lowest forecasted growth in all of Latin America.
North America is a major growth market to watch, primarily due to the launch of the FedNow® Service in 2023. Real-time payments are still in their early stages in the U.S., accounting for only 1.5% of the total payments volume in 2023, leaving significant room for expansion.
Real-time payments in the U.S. are minimal compared to paper-based payments and non-real-time electronic payments, which account for 18% and 80.5% of all transactions, respectively. However, due to its significant financial influence, the U.S. still ranks 12th worldwide in terms of transaction volume.
Middle East and Africa
Finally, in a bit of a surprise, Africa had the highest real-time share of electronic payments of any world region in 2023, at 40%. The region recorded 8.2 billion real-time transactions last year.
Nigeria led the region in real-time payments, with 27.7% of transactions using real-time methods in 2023. The COVID-19 pandemic was a key driver of this growth, encouraging consumers to shift from cash to electronic payment methods.
Egypt, which entered the world of real-time payments in 2022, accounted for just 1.4% of overall payment volume in 2023. However, it’s expected to represent more than a third of payments in the region by 2028.
The Next Big Thing
For financial institutions looking to monetize real-time, the next big opportunity will be connecting multiple real-time schemes to create new corridors. Last year saw numerous bilateral agreements in Latin America and Asia as neighboring countries began establishing real-time cross-border rails for QR code and P2P payments.
Asian countries continue to lead in this area. Payments using India’s UPI scheme can now be made in Malaysia, Indonesia, UAE and France, while users of Malaysia’s DuitNow can now make QR code real-time payments from Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, and China.
But the rest of the world is catching up. G20 initiatives, EU Instant Payments mandates and the Nexus blueprint are expected to drive progress in 2024 and beyond. The blueprint aims to standardize and connect national payment systems, unlocking economic, competitive, and operational advantages, and both governments and financial professionals are poised to reap the benefits.
*All data contained within this article comes from the 2024 Prime Time for Real-Time Report.
