This article in Finextra offers a great job providing a synopsis of why forecasts go wrong and then how Auger, an exchange prediction market built on Ethereum, will attempt to improve forecasting in 2017. Read the article if interested in flaws in forecasting and read this if interested in what the article has to say about Auger:
“Augur is an exchange prediction market that uses blockchain concepts to predict the future set to go live in 2017. The way it works is simple. Individuals on the platform can make predictions by trading shares in event outcomes such as the outcome of the presidential election. If the odds are even, the share is bought at 50 cents, if you win, you get back $1. If you lose, nothing. Just like other prediction markets.
The key difference with Augur is that it is entirely open-sourced and decentralised and allows for the execution of contracts on the Ethereum platform. This means that anyone, anywhere can set up a prediction market of their choice and it will manage itself autonomously.
Notable supporters of the project include Intrade co-founder Ron Bernstein, the Thiel Foundation and Vitalik Buterin.
While prediction markets are usually better than other methods of divining the future, these will provide the ultimate test for blockchain concepts to offer an open-for-everyone method for assembling collective wisdom and if the Augur project delivers results, it may end up as the most useful application of blockchain technology – more so than its currently discussed uses in others sectors such as finance and payments.”
Overview by Tim Sloane, VP, Payments Innovation at Mercator Advisory Group
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