First Data has released its September SpendTrend Analysis
of same-store consumer spending, and the picture is hardly bullish for retail
sales. Part of the difficulty, however, is an artifact of the year-prior
sales numbers, which were exceptionally high.
Overall
dollar volume growth was 5.8%, down from August’s 7.2% growth. The moderation
of growth can be attributed to tough comparables as September 2011 was a strong
month with dollar volume growth of 9.5%. Transaction growth dipped slightly to
6.3% from 6.5% last month. Average ticket growth was -0.5%, down from August’s
0.6% growth. Although consumers have shown a willingness to spend, they
continue to be price-conscious and look for bargains
Retail volume growth specifically was 3.7% versus 7.4% in
August, figures that again were affected by September 2011’s strong
results. Of potential concerns to both retailers and the credit card
industry was the small growth in credit card spending (2.3%) versus signature
debit (8.9%) and PIN debit (9.7%). Consumers continue to be cautious in
their use of credit, and to control the amount of spend, as illustrated by the
flat/declining average ticket. Closed-loop prepaid showed modest growth
(6.4%) suggesting the prepaid fits in with consumers spending preferences in
the lead-up to the holiday shopping season.
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